Geopolitics
Feb 28, 2026
Israel and US Strikes on Iran Raise Near-Term Regional War Risk
Reporting on February 28, 2026 indicates Israel launched attacks in Iran, with U.S. involvement described by multiple outlets, followed by Iranian missile fire toward Israel. The core risk is an action-reaction cycle that compresses decision time, increases miscalculation probability, and expands the set of targets and domains involved, including energy, shipping, and cyber systems.
Impact 5/5Probability 4/5Score 20/25RegionalSevere
Nuclear Stability
Feb 27, 2026
IAEA Verification Blind Spot in Iran Is Raising Escalation and Proliferation Risk
A new IAEA assessment indicates inspectors cannot verify whether Iran has resumed or suspended enrichment or fully account for enriched uranium stocks. The core risk is not a single technical milestone but the strategic instability created by uncertainty: worst-case assumptions, shortened decision timelines, and a higher chance of coercive escalation.
Impact 5/5Probability 3/5Score 15/25RegionalSerious