Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer to Midnight: Nuclear Escalation, Climate Crisis, and Pandemics Threaten Humanity

The Doomsday Clock, a symbolic representation of the world’s proximity to global catastrophe, has been set at an alarming 90 seconds to midnight. This is the closest the clock has ever been to the fateful hour of 12:00, signaling the dire state of our current world. The clock’s time is determined by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board, a group of experts who consider a wide range of global threats.

One of the main factors influencing the clock’s new time is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has escalated to the point of potential nuclear escalation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its threats to use nuclear weapons are a stark reminder of the dangers of war and the importance of diplomatic channels for resolving conflicts. Additionally, Russia’s actions at the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia nuclear reactor sites, which violate international protocols and put the release of radioactive materials at risk, are also a significant concern.

The clock’s time is also influenced by the ongoing climate crisis, which poses a significant threat to humanity. The world has yet to take sufficient action to curb carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change, despite the science being clear. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is also a reminder of the importance of investing in pandemic preparedness and the need for stronger international cooperation.

Leaders around the world have not heeded the warnings of the Doomsday Clock in the past, and as a result, the world has become increasingly perilous. The clock serves as a reminder that the time for action is now. We must take bold and decisive steps to address the multiple, existential crises facing humanity explains the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. To prevent a catastrophe, it is crucial that in 2023, we take action on several fronts including reducing carbon emissions, enhancing arms control agreements, and investing in readiness for pandemics. The solutions to these issues are well understood, but there is a lack of political motivation to implement them. It is imperative that this changes in the coming year for the betterment of the future.

As Mary Robinson, Chair of The Elders, and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said,

“The Doomsday Clock is sounding an alarm for the whole of humanity. We are on the brink of a precipice. But our leaders are not acting at sufficient speed or scale to secure a peaceful and liveable planet.”

It is time for leaders to take a crisis mindset and work together towards a collective response rooted in the spirit and values of the UN Charter. Only then can we return to a pathway to peaceful co-existence and sustainable development. The clock is ticking, and the fate of humanity hangs in the balance. It is up to us to take action and turn the clock back before it’s too late.

Doomsday Threats and Multipliers

Nuclear Threats

• The New START treaty between Russia and the US is in jeopardy, increasing the risk of a nuclear exchange
• China’s significant expansion of nuclear capabilities and refusal to enhance transparency and predictability
• North Korea’s significant increase in missile testing, including an intercontinental ballistic missile launch
• Iran’s increase in uranium enrichment capacity positioning them closer to acquiring nuclear weapons
• India and Pakistan’s modernization of nuclear arsenals, leading to a dangerous new “third nuclear age” of competition
• Full-fledged nuclear weapons modernization programs pursued by US, Russia, and China
• Arms racing and missile arms races in South and Northeast Asia contribute to a dire global nuclear threat scenario.

Biological Threats

• Devastating events like the COVID-19 pandemic are no longer considered rare occurrences, with a significant increase in the total number and diversity of infectious disease outbreaks since 1980
• Zoonotic diseases, originating in animals and transmitted to humans, pose a significant risk for pandemics
• Inadequate ability to predict which viruses and microbes are most likely to cause human disease
• Frequent occurrence of laboratory accidents, with challenges to current laboratory biosafety and biosecurity programs and the increasing ease of obtaining and modifying pathogens
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine and continuing disinformation efforts regarding biological weapons have changed the landscape of biological threats, increasing the risk of biological warfare in the chaotic conditions of Ukraine.

The Ongoing Climate Crisis

• The Russia-Ukraine War undermines global efforts to combat climate change by expanding investment in natural gas at a time when it should be shrinking.
• Record-high levels of global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels, despite a decline in Chinese emissions and a rise in the US, India, and elsewhere.
• Weather extremes, notably floods and droughts, are increasingly attributed to climate change, devastatingly affecting countries like West Africa and Pakistan.
• These extreme weather events led to poor harvests, further undermining food security, and causing major crop failure and water-borne disease epidemics.
• Climate change also causes the destruction of infrastructure, homes, livestock, and livelihoods.

Technology and False Information

• Cyber-enabled disinformation continues unabated, with political opposition to a “Disinformation Governance Board” proposed by the Department of Homeland Security being grounded in willful misrepresentation and the politics of personal destruction.
• Inside Russia, government control of the information ecosystem has blocked the wide dissemination of truthful information about the Ukraine war.
• Chinese surveillance technology has continued apace in Xinjiang, with disturbing implications for human rights and a distinct threat to civil society.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has shredded norms of behavior in space, publicly threatening to use an anti-satellite weapon against US Starlink satellites, arguing that they are not merely a commercial system but a military one (Ukraine has made use of Starlink in its conflict with Russia.)

About The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, founded by some of the world’s leading scientists and thinkers, including Albert Einstein and J. Robert Oppenheimer, serves as a vital voice in raising awareness about man-made threats to humanity. The organization’s creation was a direct response to the devastating consequences of the atomic bombs developed during the Manhattan Project.

Furthermore, the Doomsday Clock, created by the Bulletin in 1947, is a powerful visual reminder of our vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies. The clock serves as a call to action for individuals, organizations, and governments to work together to create a safer and more secure future for all.